The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has assessed that the likelihood of the global economy falling into recession following the ceasefire with Iran has significantly decreased.

Just three months ago, the IMF warned that the prolonged Iran conflict could push the global economy into recession, but following the ceasefire in June, it has released an analysis indicating that this risk has been substantially mitigated.

In its quarterly economic outlook released on the 15th (local time), the IMF projected that while this war would somewhat slow global economic growth, its long-term impact would be limited, according to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ).

▲ IMF Maintains Cautious Optimism Despite Ceasefire Termination Declaration

However, on the day of the announcement, US President Donald Trump stated that the ceasefire has effectively ended.

This came after Iran resumed attacks on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and the US responded by launching fresh airstrikes on Iran.

However, President Trump did not mention that the US would resume full-scale warfare.

▲ Removal of 'Global Recession Scenario' Presented in April

In its April outlook, the IMF presented three risk scenarios, including the possibility that the global economy could fall into recession if the war were prolonged until 2027.

However, in this outlook, all of those scenarios have been removed, indicating that the IMF has assessed the likelihood of prolonged conflict has significantly decreased.

▲ "Uncertainty Remains, But Economic Resilience Confirmed"

Petia Koeva Brooks, Deputy Director of the IMF's Research Department, assessed that while various risk factors still exist, the global economy is demonstrating higher-than-expected resilience.

She stated, "While uncertainty and downside risks remain, the global economy has demonstrated considerable recovery resilience."

▲ Slight Downward Revision of 2026 Growth Rate...AI Effects Expected in 2027

According to the IMF outlook, which is used as a key reference by corporations and investors, the global economy is expected to grow by 3.0% in 2026.

This is slightly lower than the April forecast of 3.1% and represents a slowdown compared to the current year's growth forecast of 3.5%.

In contrast, in 2027, when the effects of expanded AI investment are expected to materialize, the growth rate is projected to rise to 3.4%, exceeding the previous forecast of 3.2%.

[AP/연합뉴스 제공]

▲ AI and War Create Divergent Fortunes Among Nations

While the overall growth rate shows little change, the IMF projects that the impact of expanded AI investment and the Iran war will diverge significantly by country.

Countries with competitiveness in the AI industry and energy-exporting nations are expected to benefit relatively, while countries highly dependent on energy imports are expected to face greater burdens.

▲ United States Expected to Achieve Solid Growth Through AI and Energy Benefits

The United States is expected to maintain a relatively advantageous position, as it leads the AI industry while also being a net oil exporter.

Active fiscal spending by the federal government is also expected to support growth.

The IMF maintained the US growth rate for this year at 2.3% as before, while slightly upward revising next year's growth rate from 2.1% to 2.2%.

IMF 로고(Photo : [로이터/연합뉴스 제공])

▲ Energy Price Burdens Pose Headwinds for Europe and India

While the sharp rise in international energy prices has somewhat moderated following the ceasefire, the IMF projects that average crude oil prices this year will remain approximately 32% higher than last year.

As a result, regions such as Europe and India, which are highly dependent on energy imports, are expected to face growth slowdown pressures. In contrast, oil-producing nations like the United States are expected to maintain relatively favorable economic conditions.

With recent hostilities resuming, international oil prices have risen, but they still fall significantly short of the peak levels recorded during the war.

▲ Eurozone Growth Forecast Further Downward Revised

High energy prices and weakened consumer sentiment are also weighing on the eurozone economy.

The IMF lowered its growth forecast for the eurozone this year from 1.1% to 0.9%.

▲ AI Supply Chain Nations Expected to Sustain Growth Momentum

Meanwhile, AI infrastructure investment is projected to drive economic growth in related supply chain countries.

The IMF projects that the AI supply chain running from Taiwan and South Korea through China to the US Silicon Valley will continue stable growth this year.

The IMF cited the energy market's high adaptive capacity as the biggest reason why the worst-case scenario it was concerned about in April did not materialize.

China reduced imports by utilizing sufficient crude oil reserves, while oil-producing nations outside the Middle East increased production, substantially offsetting the supply shortage caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Deputy Director Brooks assessed, "The flexibility and adjustment capacity of the energy market operated remarkably beyond what could have been predicted."

▲ Energy Shocks Not Yet Fully Reflected

However, the IMF diagnosed that the effects of high energy prices have not yet been fully reflected across the entire economy.

It explained that some countries are using crude oil reserves secured before the war, and thus the actual burden of costs may materialize in the future.

The IMF identified AI development as one of the most important variables that will shape the global economy going forward.

It analyzed that if computing demand expands further and AI begins to genuinely improve corporate productivity, the global economic growth rate could be higher than currently projected.