The barely recovered investment sentiment in artificial intelligence (AI) technology stocks is being tested again before a double wave of threats: the escalating US-Iran conflict and the announcement of key employment indicators that will determine the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

Global financial markets are holding their breath amid escalating Middle East tensions. On July 31st, CBS reported that the US and Israel were planning bombing operations on Iranian energy facilities as early as this weekend (August 3rd-4th). US President Donald Trump subsequently amplified tensions by threatening a "powerful strike." On August 1st, Iran's side, represented by Brigadier General Ali Abdollahi of the Hatam Al-Aenbiya Central Military Command, a spokesman for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, labeled US actions as "reckless" and warned of a "comprehensive response plan." As the US-Iran conflict intensifies, rising pressures on international oil prices and inflation are again threatening investment sentiment in AI technology stocks.

Simultaneously, attention is focused on the flow of the US labor market. This week (August 3rd-7th), key employment indicators to gauge the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction will be announced consecutively. On August 4th, June's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will be released, with market consensus at 7.25 million positions. Following that, on August 5th, the July ADP National Employment Report will be published, and on August 7th, the July Employment Report will be announced. Nonfarm payroll growth in the July employment report is expected at 91,000, while the unemployment rate is projected at 4.3%. Labor market overheating serves as a key factor that increases the likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates.

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Unstable AI investment sentiment was evident last week as well. As concerns about the AI sector grew, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index on the New York Stock Exchange fell 4.3% last week. Although it rose 8.19% on July 30th and showed a 0.07% gain on July 31st, suggesting a rebound, it still remains in an unstable state. In particular, AMD's earnings announcement scheduled for August 4th is expected to be a key barometer for AI investment trends and semiconductor industry conditions.

Market experts anticipate that the market's upward path will be bumpy. Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist at B. Riley Weiss, pointed out that "the market is essentially constrained by oil prices and 10-year Treasury yields." Jim Baird, Chief Investment Officer of Plante Moran Financial Advisors, emphasized the importance of the labor market, stating, "If the labor market overheats again, this would almost certainly increase the likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising rates at its next meeting."

This week, whether geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran ease and the trajectory of the US labor market will be critical turning points that determine the direction of global investment sentiment, which has barely shown signs of recovery centered on AI technology stocks. This will serve as a key clue to gauge the Federal Reserve's next monetary policy move and as a testing ground for stabilizing the turbulent market.