Currently, just one month after the signing of the ceasefire memorandum of understanding (MOU), military tensions between the United States and Iran are escalating, raising concerns about a full-scale war reignition. Contrary to the MOU's intent of a "permanent ceasefire declaration," the two sides have been engaged in a cycle of attacks and retaliations for seven days, facing the risk of falling into an "uncontrollable" cycle of escalation.

On July 17 (local time), the United States conducted night airstrikes for the seventh consecutive day on military supply infrastructure (bridges, railways, roads, etc.) near Iran's Strait of Hormuz. Simultaneously, the U.S. military deployed 2,000 personnel from the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit to Iranian waters and advanced combat aircraft from European bases to the Middle East, intensifying its offensive posture. In response, Iran struck back by attacking U.S. military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, U.S. allies in the Gulf, as well as power plants and desalination facilities. Furthermore, Iran expanded the scope of retaliatory attacks to include mediator nations Qatar and Oman, as well as Iraq and Jordan, escalating the crisis.

Military experts suggest that this intensification of military conflict by both sides is a "pressure gesture" to secure negotiating leverage. The U.S. move is interpreted as an attempt to neutralize Iran's control within the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran's attacks on U.S. Gulf allies and threats to mediator nations are seen as strategically intended to destabilize international oil prices.

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However, full-scale escalation poses significant burdens for both sides. The United States faces inevitable economic damage, while Iran faces a dilemma of having to handle massive resources needed for post-war reconstruction and public discontent. Indeed, international oil prices have already risen more than 10% this week, triggering warning signs for the global economy. President Donald Trump mentioned on July 12 that the two sides came close to an agreement before negotiations fell apart, suggesting an intention to maximize negotiating power through limited conflict. At a midpoint of the 60-day additional ceasefire period, the psychological warfare between the two sides is sharper than ever.

Nevertheless, there are growing concerns that the situation could develop unpredictably. Sayed Golkar, an expert on Iranian security institutions at the University of Tennessee, warned that "this escalation is rapidly intensifying and slipping out of control." He added, "There is a very high risk that either side's sudden move could escalate into a full-scale war," emphasizing the severity of the current situation.

Hamid Reza Azizi, a visiting researcher at Germany's Institute for International Security Affairs, characterized the current situation as an "endurance test." The outlook suggests that the United States and Iran will continue a long-term standoff while suppressing their respective domestic political and economic crises while attempting to force the other's submission. As long as fundamental differences in positions over the Strait of Hormuz, which holds the world economy's lifeline, remain unresolved, the military conflict between the two sides will continue to carry the uncertainty of potentially spiraling into an "uncontrollable" escalation at any moment.